Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
