A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
